US lawmaker says Iran nuclear deal unlikely now but could emerge soon
Senator Marco Rubio warned that an Iran nuclear deal is unlikely at present but could materialize shortly, saying the United States will insist on safeguards and that Tehran will face heavy consequences if it does not comply.
The comments came on the sidelines of the ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Manila, where Rubio said Tehran is currently not ready to reach an agreement but might change its position within days.
He framed the U.S. approach as one that ties incentives and pressure together, and he reiterated that any future civil nuclear arrangement would include strict guarantees.
Rubio also warned that continued defiance would leave Iran paying a steep price and criticized elements of the international legal system in blunt terms during his remarks.
Remarks at the ASEAN foreign ministers meeting
Senator Marco Rubio addressed reporters after sessions of the ASEAN foreign ministers gathering in Manila.
He described Iran as “not ready” to finalize an agreement now, but added that developments could shift quickly and produce a different posture from Tehran in the near term.
Rubio said the United States has maintained its negotiating stance and is prepared to respond should Iran show willingness to engage, underscoring the fluidity of diplomatic timetables.
His comments reflected an effort to signal both patience for negotiation and firmness on enforcement to regional partners watching developments closely.
U.S. commitment and the possibility of rapid change
Rubio asserted that the United States has kept its commitments on the negotiating table and suggested Iran might reverse its current stance within days.
He did not outline a specific timeline or disclose private diplomatic contacts, but emphasized that Washington remains ready to move quickly if Tehran demonstrates serious intent.
That conditional openness is intended to balance a deterrent posture with the option of rapid diplomatic engagement, a formula U.S. officials have used in past nuclear negotiations.
Analysts say such statements aim to preserve leverage while leaving room for a sudden political shift that could restart formal talks.
Safeguards and guarantees for civil nuclear cooperation
The senator stressed that any civil nuclear arrangement with Iran would include comprehensive safeguards to prevent diversion to military use.
He said safeguards are a non-negotiable element and would be integral to any agreement that permits civilian nuclear activity.
This emphasis echoes longstanding international concerns about verification, transparency and access for inspectors in any future deal.
U.S. insistence on enforceable safeguards is likely to be a central demand in any renewed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
Warnings of consequences and pressure on Tehran
Rubio warned Tehran that if it continues on its current trajectory it will “pay a heavy price,” framing U.S. policy in terms of reciprocal measures and consequences.
He invoked a strict approach to enforcement, suggesting punitive diplomatic or economic steps could follow further escalation by Iran.
The comments are part of a broader strategy of aligning pressure with the promise of incentives, intended to compel Tehran toward verifiable restraint.
Regional capitals in the Gulf and beyond will be monitoring any escalation or concessions closely, given the potential security and economic fallout.
Critique of the International Criminal Court during remarks
During his remarks, Rubio also criticised the International Criminal Court, using harsh language to describe some members of the institution.
He argued that certain decisions by the court undermine broader international accountability or reflect political bias, though he did not elaborate on specific cases.
The comments add a judicial dimension to his broader critique of international institutions that, in his view, sometimes act contrary to U.S. interests.
Legal experts say U.S. officials have long had mixed relations with the ICC, balancing cooperation on some matters with opposition to aspects of its jurisdiction.
Regional implications for the Gulf and wider Middle East
Rubio’s statements are likely to resonate across Gulf capitals that remain deeply concerned about Iran’s nuclear trajectory and regional influence.
A renewed diplomatic push toward a limited civil nuclear deal with robust safeguards could ease some tensions, but it could also provoke political debate among Gulf states about security guarantees and regional balance.
Governments in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and their partners will watch for concrete guarantees, verification mechanisms and any changes in Iran’s regional behaviour.
For now, the balance of pressure and the possibility of quick diplomatic movement leave policymakers preparing for multiple scenarios.
The senator’s comments in Manila underline that diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear activities remains unsettled and that outcomes may shift rapidly, depending on Tehran’s calculations and the interplay of international pressure and incentives.
