Strait of Hormuz closure threatens crop yields and could push 30 million into poverty, UNDP warns
UNDP warns the Strait of Hormuz closure is disrupting fuel and fertiliser supplies, risking crop yields, food security, and pushing over 30 million people back into poverty.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Iran conflict are already undermining global food security and could push more than 30 million people back into poverty. Disruptions to fuel and fertiliser shipments passing through the strait have begun to depress agricultural productivity and are expected to translate into lower crop yields later this year, UNDP officials said on April 23, 2026. The agency cautioned that even an immediate end to hostilities would not erase the damage that has already been inflicted on supply chains and rural livelihoods.
UNDP issues stark poverty and food-security forecast
On April 23, 2026, UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo warned that the knock-on effects of the conflict tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure are severe and mounting. He said the damage already in motion could drive tens of millions back into poverty, with the rural poor and smallholder farmers most exposed to rising input costs and constrained access to markets.
De Croo highlighted that interruptions in remittances, energy shortages and the disruption of critical shipping routes amplify the economic shock. The UNDP framed the situation as a cascade: logistical bottlenecks feed supply shortages, which feed higher prices and reduced agricultural output, deepening vulnerability across already-fragile regions.
Strait of Hormuz closure Hobbles Fuel and Fertiliser Flows
Much of the Middle East’s industrial and agricultural exports transit the Strait of Hormuz, and a significant share of global fertiliser shipments passes through the narrow waterway. Analysts and UN agencies say the closure has raised transport times, increased insurance and freight costs, and constrained timely deliveries of fuel and crop inputs.
Fertiliser production concentrated in the region means that even short-term interruptions reverberate quickly through global agricultural markets. The resulting scarcity of inputs and spikes in energy costs are already being felt by producers and traders across Asia and Africa, according to UN assessments.
Fertiliser shortages threaten crop yields this season
Agricultural experts warn that insufficient fertiliser and delayed fuel deliveries for farm machinery will reduce planting efficiency and diminish yields during the coming harvest windows. Reduced access to nitrogen and phosphate-based fertilisers can lower crop productivity in high-dependence areas, compounding food-supply risk where margins are already thin.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has cautioned that a prolonged blockade of key shipping lanes could trigger widespread food supply disruptions, describing the prospect as a potentially catastrophic scenario for import-dependent countries. Farmers facing input shortages will likely scale back acreage or accept lower yields, increasing regional price volatility.
Regions and countries facing acute food stress
FAO and UNDP analyses identify India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Egypt among the countries most exposed to disrupted fertiliser flows and rising food insecurity. These nations rely heavily on imported fertiliser or on ports that receive shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
In many of the most vulnerable countries, elevated food prices and reduced purchasing power threaten to reverse years of progress on hunger and nutrition. Urban poor and rural households that depend on market purchases for staple foods will be particularly affected as local shortages and higher transport costs push retail prices upward.
Humanitarian aid routes blocked and funding under strain
The UNDP chief warned that conflicts in the Middle East have already choked humanitarian corridors, delaying life-saving shipments to crises elsewhere and straining aid agencies’ capacities. De Croo said humanitarian operations are facing both logistical hurdles and funding shortfalls, which could force agencies to prioritize assistance and leave some populations without expected support.
Delays in fuel shipments increase the cost of running relief operations, while constrained donor budgets mean fewer resources to meet escalating needs. The combined pressure of shipping bottlenecks and fiscal constraints risks a situation where humanitarian responders must turn away people who would otherwise have received help.
Global economic losses and possible policy responses
UNDP estimates suggest the conflict’s ripple effects have already shaved between 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points off global gross domestic product, underscoring the broader economic fallout beyond agriculture. Supply-chain disruptions and surging energy prices have amplified inflationary pressures and reduced global growth prospects in recent months.
Policy options under discussion include temporary diplomatic efforts to reopen and secure shipping lanes, targeted humanitarian and development financing, and emergency measures to stabilize fertiliser markets. Countries may also consider diversifying supply sources, subsidising critical agricultural inputs for vulnerable farmers, and coordinating international support to preserve food access for the most affected populations.
The UN and its agencies are urging immediate, coordinated action to prevent a deeper crisis as the agricultural season progresses. They stress that without swift measures to restore shipments and support vulnerable households, the combined effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure and the wider regional conflict could evolve into a prolonged global food and humanitarian emergency.