UAE economic growth to accelerate to 4.8% in 2025

Scott Livermore, chief economist and managing director of Oxford Economics Middle East, expects economic growth in the UAE to accelerate to 4.8% next year.

Scott, who is also the economic adviser to the Institute of Chartered Accountants in the UAE, told Emirates News Agency (WAM) that economic growth is supported by the strong performance of the non-oil economy, which is expected to continue its strong performance, growing by 4.6% year-on-year during the current year.

Scott believes that non-oil sectors, including tourism and travel, will achieve broad-based growth and will be key drivers of the UAE’s economic growth, pointing to the record high number of visitors to Dubai and passenger traffic through Dubai International Airport. He expects visitor numbers to continue to rise strongly, with growth estimated at more than 20% this year, and to achieve double-digit growth again in 2025.

He stated that the UAE economy has succeeded in facing global challenges and difficulties, especially high interest rates, supported by strategic government support while continuing to implement growth plans and diversify the economy, noting that the UAE has succeeded in achieving significant diversification in its economy, away from oil over the past two decades, with a move towards enhancing growth and sustainability in non-oil sectors.

Scott expected that investment activity in the UAE would be strong in the coming period, with the implementation of many strategic initiatives and plans, including “We the Emirates 2031” and the Dubai Economic Agenda “D33”, in addition to many other strategies, noting that the UAE continues to work on increasing its attractiveness to foreign investors and talents, through plans and programs such as allowing foreigners to own 100% of local companies and reducing the costs of establishing companies.

He pointed out that the population growth in the country has been significantly reflected in the real estate market.

Scott said that the real estate market in the UAE is expected to remain strong with new projects and units entering the market, and other sectors such as travel and tourism, digital technology, finance and investment are expected to perform strongly, as they are strategic sectors and a major driver of growth.

He explained that policy makers in the UAE are also focusing on innovative and emerging sectors in the financial, creative, manufacturing and other sectors, which qualifies them for further growth alongside sectors that benefit mainly from population growth, most notably real estate and education.

Asked about his expectations for the GCC economies, Scott said economic growth is expected to double to more than 4.4% in 2025, with economic growth in the Middle East expected to reach around 2.1% in 2024, accelerating sharply to 3.7% in 2025.

The chief economist and managing director of Oxford Economics Middle East believes that non-oil economies will continue to grow in the GCC countries, and that the overall budget of the GCC countries is likely to achieve a surplus.

He pointed out that the overall financial position of the Gulf countries is strong, which is reflected in the positive credit ratings, which allows them to access financing through capital markets and initial public offerings.

• The UAE economy has succeeded in facing global challenges and difficulties.

Global Economy

The global economy is expected to grow by 2.7% this year and next, said Scott Livermore, chief economist and managing director of Oxford Economics Middle East, stressing that growing fears that the United States could enter a recession are unfounded, as recent data shows that it will remain consistent with a more orderly and calmer slowdown in growth.