Vietnam’s To Lam warns Asia: economic resilience, not arms races, is key to stability
To Lam told the Shangri‑La Dialogue that Asia must prioritise resilient economic development over military competition to protect trade, energy and livelihoods.
Vietnam’s new top leader, To Lam, used a high‑profile address at the Shangri‑La Dialogue in Singapore to argue that regional peace and stability hinge on economic resilience as much as military deterrence. He warned that modern instability often arises from disruptions to trade, finance and supply chains, and urged Asian states to shift focus from unchecked competition to cooperative development. The speech marked one of his first major interventions since assuming Vietnam’s combined party and state leadership roles, and sought to cast Vietnam as a proactive regional actor.
To Lam frames development as a security priority
To Lam told defence and diplomatic officials that security today cannot be reduced to military capability alone. He said economic shocks — from tariffs to energy disruptions — can erode social stability and strategic trust just as effectively as conventional conflict.
He criticised an international environment where stronger actors can impose costs on weaker ones, and called for rules and cooperation that protect smaller countries’ interests. His message was deliberately measured; he avoided singling out any power while underscoring the consequences of strategic rivalry for middle powers.
Calls for a shock‑resilient economic foundation
In his address, To Lam stressed the need for development systems that can withstand external shocks. He argued that resilient supply chains, diversified energy sources and stable finance frameworks are essential to prevent geopolitical tensions from turning into economic crises.
He warned that tools such as trade restrictions, energy blockades and data controls are increasingly being deployed as levers of statecraft. Strengthening livelihoods and expanding economic cooperation, he said, are central to bolstering strategic trust across the region.
Vietnam’s domestic ambitions and international posture
The speech also served to connect Vietnam’s domestic economic goals with its foreign policy. To Lam reiterated Hanoi’s long‑term objective to become a high‑income economy by 2045, and framed a peaceful external environment as indispensable to achieving sustained double‑digit growth rates.
His remarks were part of a broader effort to present Vietnam not only as a neutral intermediary but as a rising manufacturing and investment destination. Vietnam’s policymakers have pursued ties with a range of partners to secure investment, technology and market access while safeguarding national development priorities.
Spillover risks from conflicts beyond Asia
To Lam drew attention to recent geopolitical flashpoints outside the region, arguing that conflicts far from Asian shores can rapidly reshape trade and energy flows. He cited disruptions in strategic waterways and disruptions to global markets as examples of how remote instability transmits local economic pain.
That argument sought to underline the interconnectedness of modern security and to warn that a narrow focus on military balance ignores the broader mechanisms that sustain societies. For small and medium economies, he said, even distant crises can undercut growth and social welfare.
South China Sea activity threatens trade chokepoints
While refraining from direct public confrontation, To Lam signalled concern about heightened maritime activity in the South China Sea and its potential to disrupt regional commerce. He noted that a significant portion of global maritime trade transits the area and that increased militarisation or unilateral actions risked interrupting vital shipping routes.
Vietnam has itself undertaken construction on reefs and outposts, just as other claimants have intensified activities, elevating the stakes for neighbouring economies. To Lam’s remarks underscored Hanoi’s interest in preserving freedom of navigation and the stable functioning of maritime commerce.
Balancing ties with China and the United States
To Lam’s address reflected Hanoi’s delicate balancing act between its largest economic partner and its largest export market. China remains a major source of investment and trade for Vietnam, while the United States is a crucial destination for Vietnamese exports that fuel recent growth.
Vietnam has expanded engagements with a range of partners, acquiring defence equipment and deepening economic ties with countries across Asia and beyond. To Lam emphasised the necessity of managing bilateral frictions so that neither strategic rivalry nor abrupt policy shifts derail Vietnam’s development trajectory.
Regional response and Vietnam’s strategic recalibration
Analysts at the forum noted that To Lam’s public diplomacy aims to cast Vietnam as a pragmatic, non‑aligned actor capable of shaping regional norms. Observers said Hanoi seeks to join a cohort of states that are taking active steps to influence the emerging regional order rather than passively accepting it.
His appearance at Shangri‑La reinforced Hanoi’s effort to position economic resilience and cooperative mechanisms at the centre of a stable Asia. The formulation signals an intent to deepen partnerships across trade, technology and defence while avoiding entanglement in zero‑sum contests.
To Lam’s message to Asian defence and diplomatic leaders was clear: protecting trade routes, energy supplies and the rules that underpin economic exchange is as central to national security as traditional military measures. If regional governments heed that warning, policymakers will need to translate rhetoric into concrete measures that strengthen supply chains, diversify energy and trade links, and reinforce institutions that reduce incentives for coercion.
