Renewable energy tipping point: Solar and wind met all net global electricity growth in 2025, Ember finds
Ember: 2025 a renewable energy tipping point — solar and wind met all new global electricity demand, pointing to a possible long‑term decline in fossil power.
Global energy researchers say 2025 was the year renewable energy reached a decisive milestone, with low‑emission sources meeting every megawatt-hour of net new electricity demand. Ember’s analysis shows renewable energy tipping point dynamics as solar supplied roughly three‑quarters of the 849 terawatt‑hours of additional demand and wind provided most of the remainder. The report underscores an expanding role for solar, wind, hydro, bioenergy and nuclear in the world’s power mix and signals the potential for fossil fuels to begin ceding market share.
Global shift in power mix
Ember reported that all low‑emission sources generated a record 42.6 percent of the world’s electricity in 2025, out of about 31,779 terawatt‑hours consumed. That milestone came even as fossil fuels continued to provide the plurality of power, but analysts at Ember argue the era of fossil growth has ended. The organisation says the pace of clean capacity additions is now sufficient to meet systemic increases in demand without requiring a parallel rise in fossil generation.
How solar and wind filled the gap
Solar energy was the dominant driver, accounting for roughly three‑quarters of the 849 TWh of new demand in 2025, according to Ember’s figures. Wind generation supplied almost all the remaining new electricity, while hydro, bioenergy and nuclear played supporting roles. The rapid scale‑up reflects years of declining costs, faster project delivery and policy support in major markets that expanded the pipeline of large‑scale renewables.
Forecasts for fossil fuel decline
Ember projects that, if current deployment rates continue, fossil fuels could lose 10–20 percentage points of market share in electricity generation by about 2035. The organisation says that sustained clean deployment should not only meet annual growth but begin to reduce absolute fossil generation in the coming decade. Independent agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) have also noted slower oil and gas demand growth in 2025, reinforcing the idea that the global fuel mix may be shifting.
Concerns about extreme demand and reliability
Not all experts accept that a single year establishes a permanent structural change. Electricity researchers caution that systems are designed to meet peak demand during extreme cold or heat, and average‑year performance does not guarantee resilience under stress. Critics say renewables still require more flexible capacity, storage and stronger transmission to replace the reliability services traditionally provided by gas, coal and nuclear plants. Industry veterans warn that high prices and short‑term shocks can reveal persistent technical roles for gas in balancing systems, particularly where imported liquefied natural gas underpins winter reliability.
Regional dynamics and geopolitical impact
The 2025 turning point reflected a rare convergence in major emitters: China and India both reduced fossil‑generated electricity last year, marking the first time this century they have done so together. Europe’s renewable surge—driven in part by policy responses to the 2022 energy shocks—pushed its clean share to an estimated 71 percent. The recent geopolitical tensions in the Gulf and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have also influenced fuel markets; some analyses show marginal reductions in fossil generation when gas supply constraints led to renewables filling shortfalls instead of higher‑carbon coal. Policymakers, including multilateral institutions, have urged targeted social support over broad fuel subsidies to avoid entrenching demand for fossil fuels.
Emissions outcomes and climate goals
Emission intensity of electricity improved in 2025, with average carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt‑hour falling to about 458 grams, down from roughly 543 gCO2e a decade earlier. Ember estimates that without the surge in solar and wind last year, global CO2 emissions would have been around 4 billion tonnes higher. Even so, current trajectories fall short of the pathway consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C; the IEA has said fossil‑fuel generation needs to fall by about 25 percent by 2030 to align with that target, a deeper cut and on an earlier timetable than some forecasts anticipate.
The 2025 data set a significant marker for policymakers and market participants in the UAE and across the Gulf, where governments are balancing energy security with decarbonisation goals. While the renewable energy tipping point highlights the rapid maturation of solar and wind technologies, experts stress that the transition’s durability will depend on investments in storage, grid integration and policies that sustain clean growth through extreme weather and geopolitical stressors.
