IMF welcomes “accelerating” Syrian economic recovery after late July 2026 mission
IMF says Syrian economic recovery is accelerating, forecasting growth above 10% in 2026 amid refugee returns, stronger agriculture and rising revenues.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Tuesday that the Syrian economic recovery is accelerating following a mission visit to the country in late July 2026. The IMF mission chief, Ron Van Rooden, pointed to improving consumer and investor confidence and the return of roughly 1.5 million refugees as central to the recent momentum. The Fund expects real GDP growth in 2026 to exceed 10 percent, driven by gains across agriculture, fuel production and services.
IMF mission findings from visit in late July 2026
The IMF mission conducted an on-the-ground assessment at the end of July 2026 and reported an acceleration in economic activity, according to the Fund’s delegation. Officials cited visible improvements in market activity and growing private-sector engagement that have accompanied recent political developments. The mission highlighted that confidence indicators for both consumers and investors have moved up since earlier this year.
Drivers of growth: agriculture, hydrocarbons and electricity
The Fund identified a strong recovery in the agricultural sector as a leading driver of expansion, supported by better harvests and restoration of farming inputs. It also noted a rise in fuel production and improvements in electricity supply that have eased bottlenecks for industry and households. Trade and services continued to expand, reflecting greater domestic circulation of goods and more consistent energy availability.
Refugee returns and reconstruction-linked demand
The IMF linked part of the recovery to the return of about 1.5 million Syrian refugees, whose re-emergence in local labour markets and consumption patterns has increased domestic demand. Returns have also supported reconstruction activities and stimulated small-scale investment in housing and services. The Fund cautioned, however, that sustainable reintegration will depend on continued improvements in public services and employment opportunities.
Inflation trends: slowdown in 2025 and a sharp rise in 2026
While inflation slowed markedly during 2025, the IMF observed a significant uptick in consumer prices during 2026. The mission attributed the recent inflation surge primarily to higher import prices — notably for fuel and food — which have been affected by regional tensions. Stronger local demand and rising wages in the public sector have added to inflationary pressures, even as wage increases began from very low base levels and have supported living standards.
Fiscal performance and revenue gains in the first half of 2026
The IMF noted a “marked improvement” in fiscal performance, recording a limited budget surplus for 2025. Fiscal dynamics strengthened further in the first half of 2026 with a large jump in tax and customs receipts, reflecting higher economic activity and improved revenue collection. The Fund reported expectations of substantial revenue growth across 2026, which could ease pressures on public finances if sustained.
Policy risks and priorities going forward
Despite the positive indicators, the IMF warned of several downside risks that could undermine the recovery’s durability. Exposure to volatile import prices, spillovers from regional conflict and uneven private-sector recovery were identified as key vulnerabilities. The Fund emphasized the need for prudent macroeconomic management, targeted social protection measures, and policies that foster private investment to consolidate gains.
The IMF’s assessment frames a cautiously optimistic outlook for Syria’s near-term economic path, emphasizing rapid growth alongside renewed challenges. Continued improvements in public services, stable external conditions and policies to contain inflation will be critical for translating the current momentum into sustained economic recovery.
